Most of the country’s commercial durian farming takes place in the island province of Hainan.

But even though it is a suitable location for durian farming, the cost to produce the fruit there is higher than in places with better climate and geographical conditions like Malaysia, Chin noted.

"Durian self-reliance is a tall task for China. It may still rely on imports."

Concurring, Albert Liu, executive vice-chairman of the Singapore-based Durian International Association, added that producing a kilogram of Hainan durians can cost around 60 yuan (US$8.3) as some farmers there grow the fruit in greenhouses. Meanwhile, this cost is as low as 20 yuan in Southeast Asian locations.

Commercial durian farming in China gained traction in 2018 and Chinese-grown durians have been available on the market since 2023. However, they remain largely inaccessible to local consumers due to low yields and high prices, as reported by The Straits Times.

Hainan's first major durian harvest occurred last year, producing only 50 tons of fruit. This year's harvest was initially projected to reach 200 tons, but the island was hit by destructive typhoons and suffered huge losses.

Nonetheless, these figures are far below China’s durian imports, which totaled over 1.4 million tons worth $6.7 billion last year, customs data shows.

"We cannot compete with Southeast Asia on quantity," Feng Xuejie, director of the Institute of Tropical Fruit Trees at the Hainan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, remarked.

Hainan durian is also more expensive than its Southeast Asian counterparts, selling for around 60 yuan per 500 grams, compared to 30-35 yuan for Thai imports, Thai newspaper The Nation reported.

It also reportedly had a very mild taste and smell and was not as creamy as imported varieties when harvested last year. Some farmers in the province have found ways to improve the fruit’s flavor but its quality remains inconsistent.

Though not too worried about China’s domestic durian industry, major producers in Southeast Asia are cautious about the risk of oversupply, particularly as more nations rush to tap into China’s durian demand.

Laos, whose durian industry has just started to bear fruit, is expected to soon enter the market. Bounchanh Kombounyasith, Laos' director general of the Department of Agriculture, said market access documents were being prepared for export to China, a state-owned Chinese newspaper reported in late September.

Indonesia, one of the top durian producers globally, announced in June that it plans to increase output and conduct a study to ensure high-quality fruit for the Chinese market.

The country, which produced 1.85 million tons of durian last year, expects shipments to China to be worth up to $8 billion.

Terry Lin, sales director at Agrionex, a Malaysia-based agricultural technology provider, said: "We are currently in the golden era of durian in China, but the momentum may taper off and it may be a silver era in the coming five years, when there can be an oversupply, especially since fresh fruits have short shelf life."

Quality issues arising from quick, unchecked expansion in durian farming are also a concern for some Southeast Asian suppliers.

Thailand, which saw its durian production increase by 180% over the past 12 years to 1.4 million tons in 2023, had to introduce dry weight standards for various durian varieties earlier this year to ensure the quality of its exports.

Vietnamese authorities last year warned against the rapid expansion of durian growing areas in its top producing regions, the Mekong Delta and Central Highlands, as planting on unsuitable land can result in low-quality fruit, harming both farmers and the Vietnamese durian brand.

Liu of the Durian International Association warned that quality issues arising from the durian rush could damage the entire region's durian industry and reputation.

"There should be unified, widely-recognized and enforceable standards (...) and promotion of tech to guarantee stable quality," he noted.